The orders are starting to sound familiar.
Work from home. Don’t travel. Cut back on driving. Conserve fuel. Schools closed. Meetings online only.
You’ve heard all of this before. The difference this time is that there is no virus. There is no pandemic. There is no CDC guidance or Dr. Fauci press conference. What’s driving governments around the world to reach for the same toolkit they used in 2020 is something far older and far simpler: they are running out of fuel.
The Iran war has shut down commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows every single day. Oil hit $126 per barrel at the peak. Analysts warn it could reach $150 if the Strait stays closed. And governments that depend on imported energy are not waiting to find out. They are already acting. And what they are doing should chill you.
The List Is Growing
Pakistan went first and went hardest. Prime Minister Sharif announced on March 10th that government employees would move to a four-day workweek, with 50% of staff working remotely on rotation. Schools closed for two weeks. Universities shifted to online-only. All in-person government meetings were banned. Cabinet ministers forfeited their salaries. Weddings and parties were capped at 200 guests and limited to a single-dish meal. Pakistan imports over 80% of its oil. Petrol prices jumped 20% in a single week.
Vietnam urged public employees to work from home, asked citizens to avoid overseas travel, and encouraged residents of Hanoi to abandon their cars entirely in favor of public transit and bicycles.
Myanmar took the most aggressive step of any government so far: it has banned half of all private vehicles from the road each day based on license plate numbers. One day your car is allowed. The next day it isn’t. The government decides.
Thailand restricted fuel exports. The Philippines introduced four-day workweeks in executive offices and banned air conditioning settings below 75 degrees in government buildings. Bangladesh closed its universities. India invoked emergency powers to ration LPG supplies for restaurants and businesses.
And in Australia — a wealthy, Western democracy that looks a great deal more like America than Myanmar does — petrol stations are already limiting customers to $20 of fuel per visit. Farmers report empty diesel tanks, stalled machinery, and canceled deliveries. Panic buying has begun.
The United Kingdom is advising motorists to drive less. South Korea has activated emergency energy protocols.
Read that list again. These are not failed states. These are functioning governments — some of them democracies, some of them American allies — reaching for restriction, rationing, and mandated behavior change because the fuel isn’t there.
Here is the question every American needs to be asking right now: how long before any of this lands on our doorstep?
The honest answer is that America is better positioned than almost any country on that list. The United States is a net energy exporter. Domestic oil and gas production is at record levels. Trump’s energy dominance agenda — more drilling, more LNG export terminals, more production — is the single biggest buffer between American families and what is happening in Pakistan and Australia right now. When the rest of the world begs for fuel, America has its own.
Trump has made clear he will not allow the kind of government-mandated restrictions that are spreading abroad. No license plate rationing. No government-ordered remote work mandates. No fuel caps at the pump. His instinct — and his policy — runs in exactly the opposite direction: produce more, sell more, protect American consumers first.
But here is the fear that should keep you honest: the Strait of Hormuz is still not open. Oil is still elevated. Gas prices have already jumped 48 cents per gallon since the war started. If the Strait stays closed through spring and into summer, the pressure on American fuel prices will not stay abstract. It will show up at every gas station, every grocery store, and every utility bill in this country.
The countries on that list didn’t think it would happen to them either. They were watching someone else’s crisis right up until they weren’t.
Trump is the wall between American families and what is unfolding abroad. The question is how long the wall holds — and whether he can get the Strait open before the pressure builds high enough that even a president committed to energy freedom starts hearing calls for emergency measures.
The energy lockdowns are already here. They just haven’t crossed the Atlantic yet.
Watch the Strait. Watch the price at the pump. And remember what it felt like in 2020 when they told you the restrictions were temporary.